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The Budapest Memorandum

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  • BuffcoBuffco Senior Member Posts: 10,585 Senior Member
    OK call me stupid, but I have two questions...

    First where is this port?
    Second, looking at a map, Russia isn't landlocked from the Black Sea.... Sochi, as a matter of fact, is on the Black Sea. So what about that area? Are there no ports there?
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 49,774 Senior Member
    EdB wrote: »
    No, Putin doesn't have the right to stop that.

    But Putin did stop that with the Ukraine. It was Putin's economic actions against the Ukraine that led to Yanukovych abandoning his previous agreement with the EU.

    EdB wrote: »
    It looks like Crimea will vote in ten days to join Russia, does Obama have the right to stop that?

    In my opinion, the UN most certainly has the right to stop it - with the use of force, if necessary. It's no longer an internal affair if the referendum (which was never previously asked for) is held under the auspices of the Russian miltary forces. If the Crimea still wants to secede after the Russians have left, so be it. If a civil war breaks out, and THEN Putin acts- so be it.
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 49,774 Senior Member
    Buffco wrote: »
    OK call me stupid, but I have two questions...

    First where is this port?
    Second, looking at a map, Russia isn't landlocked from the Black Sea.... Sochi, as a matter of fact, is on the Black Sea. So what about that area? Are there no ports there?

    The Russians have ports all over the Black sea. HQ is Sevastopol.
  • EdBEdB Senior Member Posts: 3,099 Senior Member
    Steven wrote: »
    But Putin did stop that with the Ukraine. It was Putin's economic actions against the Ukraine that led to Yanukovych abandoning his previous agreement with the EU.




    In my opinion, the UN most certainly has the right to stop it - with the use of force, if necessary. It's no longer an internal affair if the referendum (which was never previously asked for) is held under the auspices of the Russian miltary forces. If the Crimea still wants to secede after the Russians have left, so be it. If a civil war breaks out, and THEN Putin acts- so be it.

    What economic actions, Russia gave Ukraine 15 billion to avert their bankruptcy.

    Russia and China will veto any attempt by the U.N.
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 26,564 Senior Member
    Steven wrote: »
    Here's what I learned from this thread: There's no problem with the U.S. having troops in something close to 160 countries around the world. After all, we have agreements, treaties and memorandums with all these countries.

    And if we start shooting at German troops and put our flag on top of their Government buildings we would be just as in our rights as Russia.
    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 26,564 Senior Member
    Buffco wrote: »
    OK call me stupid, but I have two questions...

    First where is this port?
    Second, looking at a map, Russia isn't landlocked from the Black Sea.... Sochi, as a matter of fact, is on the Black Sea. So what about that area? Are there no ports there?

    Also I don't know how many of those ports in the Black Sea are deep water ports. But Russia does have a rather large military presence in Crimea. Also the Russian and Ukrainian histories are intertwined all the way back to the 11th century. This is a complicated situation, which still does not justify Putin's actions. However it does explain his motivations. In the end he may be more motivated to keep the Ukraine, than the west is motivated to have it join the EU.

    There was an analyst the other day that pointed out that the EU will not allow a member state that is in a current border dispute to join the union. So all Putin has to do is have the dispute and he has his way.
    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • ricinusricinus Senior Member Posts: 6,210 Senior Member
    Yes but Germany was never part of the United States, Crimea was at one time part of Russia..

    Mike
    My new goal in life is to become an Alter Kaker...
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 26,564 Senior Member
    EdB wrote: »
    It looks like Crimea will vote in ten days to join Russia, does Obama have the right to stop that?

    Probably the most intelligent question you have ever asked.
    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 26,564 Senior Member
    Steven wrote: »
    In my opinion, the UN most certainly has the right to stop it - with the use of force, if necessary. It's no longer an internal affair if the referendum (which was never previously asked for) is held under the auspices of the Russian miltary forces. If the Crimea still wants to secede after the Russians have left, so be it. If a civil war breaks out, and THEN Putin acts- so be it.

    Good point. But will they? So far Europe seems reluctant to even stop buying Russian oil.
    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 49,774 Senior Member
    EdB wrote: »
    What economic actions, Russia gave Ukraine 15 billion to avert their bankruptcy.

    Russia and China will veto any attempt by the U.N.

    Er, not exactly. Russia only offered the Ukraine a new $15b loan after the protests/rioting started. Putin temporarily cut off gas supplies in the middle of winter, threatened the Ukraine with higher gas prices if it joined the EU, and ordered stepped up inspections of Ukrainian imports at the border - hurting Ukraine's cash flow.

    The fact that the UN can't, or won't, use force doesn't change the fact that the UN absolutely has the right to do so.
  • BuffcoBuffco Senior Member Posts: 10,585 Senior Member
    So is Russia just after Crimea? Or that and the Ukraine?

    I didn't think about the ports perhaps not being deep water.
  • George KGeorge K Super Moderator Posts: 11,690 Senior Member
    Steven wrote: »
    In my opinion, the UN most certainly has the right to stop it - with the use of force, if necessary. It's no longer an internal affair if the referendum (which was never previously asked for) is held under the auspices of the Russian miltary forces. If the Crimea still wants to secede after the Russians have left, so be it. If a civil war breaks out, and THEN Putin acts- so be it.

    But does the new govt. of the Ukraine have any more legitimacy than the new puppet provincial government of the Crimea?

    Both were formed by seizing power from former democratically elected governments. I'm not sure what the legal status of either is at the moment. I'm not even sure that we have formally recognized the new govt. in Kiev.

    What I do think is that Russian control or annexation of the Crimea is a fait accompli that cannot be reversed, although - in theory at least - Russia may be made to suffer punishment for its actions.
    The GOP big tent now is the size of a pup tent, its floor splattered with guano.
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 49,774 Senior Member
    Good point. But will they? So far Europe seems reluctant to even stop buying Russian oil.

    And how prescient does Victoria Nuland look?
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 49,774 Senior Member
    George K wrote: »
    But does the new govt. of the Ukraine have any more legitimacy than the new puppet provincial government of the Crimea?

    Both were formed by seizing power from former democratically elected governments. I'm not sure what the legal status of either is at the moment. I'm not even sure that we have formally recognized the new govt. in Kiev.

    But this is an internal affair and not the province of the UN. I don't see your point unless you're arguing that once Yanukovych was overthrown, all the rules went out the door.
    It can be reversed, but only if the EU is willing to bear some pain. It just ain't.
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 26,564 Senior Member
    Yup.......
    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 26,564 Senior Member
    George K wrote: »
    But does the new govt. of the Ukraine have any more legitimacy than the new puppet provincial government of the Crimea?

    Both were formed by seizing power from former democratically elected governments. I'm not sure what the legal status of either is at the moment. I'm not even sure that we have formally recognized the new govt. in Kiev.

    What I do think is that Russian control or annexation of the Crimea is a fait accompli that cannot be reversed, although - in theory at least - Russia may be made to suffer punishment for its actions.

    Something I have been thinking. Getting rid of Yanukovych does give Putin a good cover for his actions.
    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • George KGeorge K Super Moderator Posts: 11,690 Senior Member
    Steven wrote: »
    But this is an internal affair and not the province of the UN. I don't see your point unless you're arguing that once Yanukovych was overthrown, all the rules went out the door.
    It can be reversed, but only if the EU is willing to bear some pain. It just ain't.

    With Russia and China having veto power, the U.N will not do anything beyond a feeble scolding. China has been quite an enthusiastic fan of annexation and would not jeopardize it's own claims.

    As I said, I do not know what the legal status of the Kiev govt. is. If it is an usurper, legally, then that would tend to support the new Crimean Provincial government's claim to legitimacy.

    As ever and everywhere, what is legal may or may not coincide with what is just.
    The GOP big tent now is the size of a pup tent, its floor splattered with guano.
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 26,564 Senior Member
    Buffco wrote: »
    So is Russia just after Crimea? Or that and the Ukraine?

    I didn't think about the ports perhaps not being deep water.

    They want The Ukraine as a member of their economic block. The Russians were never happy that the Ukraine declared independence.
    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • George KGeorge K Super Moderator Posts: 11,690 Senior Member
    Another legal/moral/political/precedent issue: Are Russian Crimeans acting within their rights?

    "Self determination" is an early 20th century concept largely invented by Woodrow Wilson and fine-tuned by FDR and Churchill and the U.N.

    George Will has an interesting column discussing the ambiguous wording in Wilson's 14 points, the Atlantic Charter and the U.N. Charter - http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-f-will-misreading-putin-and-history/2014/03/03/d81387b0-a308-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html - in which he points out the varying usage of "nations" and "peoples" having the right to said self determination.

    He correctly notes that in Wilson's case it was slapdash writing and lack of thinking things through, but fails to note that the ambiguity in the Atlantic Charter is mostly because FDR and Churchill disagreed vehemently about post-war decolonization. The Atlantic Charter begat GATT, the U.N and arguably NATO as well, so there is a chain of precedence.

    But the upchuck of it all is that ethnic Russians in the Crimea may have the best legal claim among all the parties involved.
    The GOP big tent now is the size of a pup tent, its floor splattered with guano.
  • jbillyjbilly Senior Member Posts: 6,023 Senior Member

    We should have elected Fred. ;)

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