More Harvard Exceptionalism

yataheyyatahey Senior MemberPosts: 5,605 Senior Member
"When the goin gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson

Replies

  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    That's more like economist exceptionalism. It's a social science parading as a hard science by clothing itself in statistics. Problem is there's not yet enough data, so economists reach broad conclusions on the basis of incredibly narrow evidence. Only political hacks paid any attention to Reinhart and Rogoff int he first place, with, unfortunately, sad consequences for our economy.
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    I was going to ignore this basically because a Huff Post article isn't going to capture any nuance. For example, slow growth could most certainly lead to higher debt after five years, if the feds decided they needed to spend more.

    Correlation versus causation can come into play here. Increasing levels of debt would add to growth according to Keynesians, but at some point has to lead to slowing growth if it couldn't be serviced through earnings or even more increased borrowings - just ask the PIIGS.
  • yataheyyatahey Senior Member Posts: 5,605 Senior Member
    Did I mention Ted Cruz is a Harvard lad?
    "When the goin gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    as we heard from the Bachmann 'brother' yesterday

    facts don't matter ... it's what you believe that matters
  • yataheyyatahey Senior Member Posts: 5,605 Senior Member
    The following are 22 signs that austerity has already arrived in America and that it is going to be very, very painful....

    #1 The financial manager of the Detroit Public Schools, Robert Bobb, has submitted a proposal to close half of all the schools in the city. His plan envisions class sizes of up to 62 students in the remaining schools.

    #2 Detroit Mayor Dave Bing wants to cut off 20 percent of the entire city from police and trash services in order to save money.

    #3 Things are so tight in California that Governor Jerry Brown is requiring approximately 48,000 state workers to turn in their government-paid cell phones by June 1st.

    #4 New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is proposing to completely eliminate 20 percent of state agencies.

    #5 New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has closed 20 fire departments at night and is proposing layoffs in every single city agency.

    #6 In the state of Illinois, lawmakers recently pushed through a 66 percent increase in the personal income tax rate.

    #7 The town of Prichard, Alabama came up with a unique way to battle their budget woes recently. They simply stopped sending out pension checks to retired workers. Of course this is a violation of state law, but town officials insist that they just do not have the money.

    #8 New Jersey Governor Chris Christie recently purposely skipped a scheduled 3.1 billion dollar payment to that state's pension system.

    #9 The state of New Jersey is in such bad shape that they still are facing a $10 billion budget deficit for this year even after cutting a billion dollars from the education budget and laying off thousands of teachers.

    #10 Due to a very serious budget shortfall, the city of Newark, New Jersey recently made very significant cuts to the police force. Subsequently, there has been a very substantial spike in the crime rate.

    #11 The city of Camden, New Jersey is "the second most dangerous city in America", but because of a huge budget shortfall they recently felt forced to lay off half of the city police force.

    #12 Philadelphia, Baltimore and Sacramento have all instituted "rolling brownouts" during which various city fire stations are shut down on a rotating basis.

    #13 In Georgia, the county of Clayton recently eliminated its entire public bus system in order to save 8 million dollars.

    #14 Oakland, California Police Chief Anthony Batts has announced that due to severe budget cuts there are a number of crimes that his department will simply not be able to respond to any longer. The crimes that the Oakland police will no longer be responding to include grand theft, burglary, car wrecks, identity theft and vandalism.

    #15 In Connecticut, the governor is asking state legislators to approve the biggest tax increase that the state has seen in two decades.

    #16 All across the United States, conditions at many state parks, recreation areas and historic sites are deplorable at best. Some states have backlogs of repair projects that are now over a billion dollars long. The following is a quote from a recent MSNBC article about these project backlogs....

    More than a dozen states estimate that their backlogs are at least $100 million. Massachusetts and New York's are at least $1 billion. Hawaii officials called park conditions "deplorable" in a December report asking for $50 million per year for five years to tackle a $240 million backlog that covers parks, trails and harbors.

    #17 The state of Arizona recently announced that it has decided to stop paying for many types of organ transplants for people enrolled in its Medicaid program.

    #18 Not only that, but Arizona is so desperate for money that they have even sold off the state capitol building, the state supreme court building and the legislative chambers.

    #19 All over the nation, asphalt roads are actually being ground up and are being replaced with gravel because it is cheaper to maintain. The state of South Dakota has transformed over 100 miles of asphalt road into gravel over the past year, and 38 out of the 83 counties in the state of Michigan have transformed at least some of their asphalt roads into gravel roads.

    #20 The state of Illinois is such a financial disaster zone that it is hard to even describe. According to 60 Minutes, the state of Illinois is six months behind on their bill payments. 60 Minutes correspondent Steve Croft asked Illinois state Comptroller Dan Hynes how many people and organizations are waiting to be paid by the state, and this is how Hynes responded....

    "It's fair to say that there are tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people waiting to be paid by the state."

    #21 The city of Chicago is in such dire straits financially that officials there are actually toying with the idea of setting up a city-owned casino as a way to raise cash.

    #22 Michigan Governor Rick Snyder is desperately looking for ways to cut the budget and he says that "hundreds of jurisdictions" in his state could go bankrupt over the next few years.
    "When the goin gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    looking at the comments about Illinois

    it's interesting because everything south of Springfield (the capital) is about as backasswards as you can get from the standpoint of an infrastructure

    the only way south south Illinois can be any more austere is to annex it to Guatemala
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    Total government spending didn't go down in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, or 2012 so really tough to argue that austerity has led to problems in the U.S.

    As for Illinois, our debt built up during the good years. Now we have to pay it off. Is it the debt that hurts Illinois or the taxes (austerity) we need to raise that hurts?

    Chicken or egg?
  • yataheyyatahey Senior Member Posts: 5,605 Senior Member
    I guess when Eisenhower championed The Interstate Highway system which was funded by Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956, that that was not the government creating jobs.
    "When the goin gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    I thought it had to do with being able to roll tanks anywhere we needed.

    At any rate, increasing debt can lead to growth. And increasing debt can hurt growth. Depends how much you have to start with.

    As I've explained before, Keynes assumed debt usage was countercyclical. Increase spending/debt in the bad times. Decrease spending/debt in the good times. We just increase spending and debt no matter what. This wasn't what was envisioned.
  • yataheyyatahey Senior Member Posts: 5,605 Senior Member
    The purpose was to move tanks etc. That isn't the point. The Federal Government DOES create jobs through infrastructure spending contrary to the right wing claiming it doesn't.
    "When the goin gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    I know logic, knowledge and erudition won't work here, but saying a major spending program created jobs in 1955 means a major spending program would create jobs today doesn't necessarily hold water.
  • yataheyyatahey Senior Member Posts: 5,605 Senior Member
    Steven wrote: »
    I know logic, knowledge and erudition won't work here, but saying a major spending program created jobs in 1955 means a major spending program would create jobs today doesn't necessarily hold water.

    You're right that is completely illogical.
    "When the goin gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    Yeah, so I don't know why I bother.
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    yatahey wrote: »
    The purpose was to move tanks etc. That isn't the point. The Federal Government DOES create jobs through infrastructure spending contrary to the right wing claiming it doesn't.

    don't be silly

    government spending only creates jobs and economic activity when it spends $1.4 trillion a year on defense ... everyone knoweds that it only works when you pay $20 million a year in salary to a defense contractor CEO (especially when those revenues recycle back into campaign coffers) ... it's GOP-er science
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    Steven wrote: »
    We just increase spending and debt no matter what. This wasn't what was envisioned.

    Ummm, no. We increase spending and debt when Republicans are in the White House. We decrease it, economic conditions permitting and in a countercyclical fashion when Dems are in the White House. Yes, I realize Congress is involved also, I'm just describing the last 40 years here.
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    C'mon now. Do you really think I'd make a mistake like that?

    Federal debt has increased during every administration since Truman. And although Clinton had a couple of years of balanced budgets late in his second term, debt was still way way up in 2000 compared to 1992.

    Spending was up as well each year that Clinton was in office.

    You're basically hanging your hat here on two years.

    I'm not blaming any President - except maybe LBJ. We have an entitlement state and entitlements keep going up. It's the nature of our beast.
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 23,584 Senior Member
    Steven wrote: »
    I know logic, knowledge and erudition won't work here, but saying a major spending program created jobs in 1955 means a major spending program would create jobs today doesn't necessarily hold water.

    If the massive spending program was to do work that would give people jobs, it would at least create that many jobs now wouldn't it? Why is it the right keeps voting to let these public buildings, schools, roads and bridges rot? How is that helpful to the economy?
    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 23,584 Senior Member
    Steven wrote: »
    C'mon now. Do you really think I'd make a mistake like that?

    Federal debt has increased during every administration since Truman. And although Clinton had a couple of years of balanced budgets late in his second term, debt was still way way up in 2000 compared to 1992.

    Spending was up as well each year that Clinton was in office.

    You're basically hanging your hat here on two years.

    I'm not blaming any President - except maybe LBJ. We have an entitlement state and entitlements keep going up. It's the nature of our beast.

    What two years can you hang your hat on?
    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    because a new school doesn't fly over a Nascar track during the Star Spangled banner and give you a chubby while you shove an order of nachos down your gullet
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    Steven wrote: »
    C'mon now. Do you really think I'd make a mistake like that?

    Federal debt has increased during every administration since Truman. And although Clinton had a couple of years of balanced budgets late in his second term, debt was still way way up in 2000 compared to 1992.

    Spending was up as well each year that Clinton was in office.

    You're basically hanging your hat here on two years.

    I'm not blaming any President - except maybe LBJ. We have an entitlement state and entitlements keep going up. It's the nature of our beast.

    Clinton came into office during a downturn. Keynes says he SHOULD have been piling on debt. By 94 teh downturn was an upturn and he started cutting deficits. It took a few years, as it should to avoid shocks to the system.

    Deficits are down during Obama's 4 years. So, no I'm nothanging my hat on 2 years. Like I said, I'm describing the last 40.
  • yataheyyatahey Senior Member Posts: 5,605 Senior Member
    "If you want to live like a republican, vote Democratic." Harry Truman
    "When the goin gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson
  • JulietJuliet Posts: 0
    Republican behavior - when in control, spend as much as you can on what you want regardless of debt ... when Democrats are in control blame all the debt you helped to accumulate on them cuzz you know everyone knows how liburrrls are

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