Democratic primary open thread

sherbsherb Senior MemberPosts: 4,098 Senior Member

I've been busy so I haven't been following as closely as I'd like.

Who's up, who's down, what's the CW? What's 538 and Nate Silver saying? Anybody trending? anybody falling behind?

Post up your thoughts. No thought is too dumb.

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Replies

  • sherbsherb Senior Member Posts: 4,098 Senior Member

    My inspiration for this thread was "the coming blue wave" thread in 2018. Silver and 538, as well as a lot of you, turned out to be spot on with your predictions.

  • BushartBushart Senior Member Posts: 3,039 Senior Member

    My interest in this is the same as any race---I try and handicap a winner

    Aaaaaand--watching closely and hoping sanity once again returns to the WH so the allies can all be on the same side again.

    Uncle Joe is worrying me lately----his gaffs are becoming numerous and are appearing to be Un-presidential. Obama ties are wearing thinner

    Liz Warren is apparently gaining traction with a 20 g turnout in NYC rally (wonder if She'll steal Hillary's thunder and become the 1st female POTUS)

    Bernie in my opinion is still a wild card---he may be focused too narrowly on the few hitters he has (healthcare-education)---may have to broaden his platform

    And I'm still in the camp where Mayor Pete needs to be a running mate---gain fed experience to go with that IQ

    I'm not seeing any other dark horses in the race

  • Green Mt BoyGreen Mt Boy Senior Member Posts: 1,073 Senior Member
    edited September 19 #4

    CW is that Sleepy Joe is the “champion” of the moderates, is ahead, and Pocahontas and the Bolshevik are splitting the Ps, with the former pulling ahead of the latter. I’d say it is 50/50 between Biden and Warren for the nomination. The rest won’t make it. I’m sort of bummed Harris is flaming out. She’s scrappy and maybe could rip the Orange One a new one, but she hasn’t been consistent and hasn’t found her footing. Barring a miracle she’s toast. If I had to bet money I’d bet on Pocahontas.

    I shouldn’t be using the Orange One’s terminology but it’s handy and, I hate to admit, funny.

  • sherbsherb Senior Member Posts: 4,098 Senior Member

    Agreed. Warren is surging right now and Harris is falling behind.

    I think Bernie is approaching his ceiling of support, although who knows. You would know better than I.

  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 24,253 Senior Member

    Seems to me that at this point in the Republican nominations Ted Cruz was a lock.

    To be honest I have not made a pick. Although I think Kamala Harris would make Trump cry.

    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • Green Mt BoyGreen Mt Boy Senior Member Posts: 1,073 Senior Member

    @sherb said:
    Agreed. Warren is surging right now and Harris is falling behind.
    I think Bernie is approaching his ceiling of support, although who knows. You would know better than I.

    Bernie’s supporters are very loyal-he could shoot someone in Times Square and they’d still love him-but I agree he has hit a ceiling. There has been turmoil in his campaign. I have to say that while I probably won’t vote for him in the primary I respect him. He’s right about the issue of income inequality and the one percent.

    During the last debate when Biden was pointing out the huge price tag for Medicare for All I was impressed by his praising Bernie for, unlike Warren, being upfront that there would be middle class taxes. That is Bernie’s style-he is straight forward and upfront. If he got the nomination I’d vote for him in a heartbeat.

  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 24,253 Senior Member

    Countdown to "you can't put the tip in" in 5.....4....3...

    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • sherbsherb Senior Member Posts: 4,098 Senior Member

    Just the tip, baby. Just the tip, I swear....

    💕😎

  • StevenSteven Senior Member Posts: 3,557 Senior Member

    Whatever. Medicare for all will be a disaster.

  • George KGeorge K Super Moderator Posts: 10,003 Senior Member

    @sherb said:
    Just the tip, baby. Just the tip, I swear....
    💕😎

    Jeez! You young guys - never heard of "oral sodomy"? As I recall, the stork brings babies, not the swallow

    Keep your stinkin' government hands off my Medicare.
  • NZ IndicatorNZ Indicator Senior Member Posts: 10,164 Senior Member
    edited September 19 #12

    Any of this matter since Trump will be in another 4 years?

    :#

  • FishTXFishTX Super Moderator Posts: 8,053 Senior Member

    Just the tip, baby. Just the tip, I swear....

    💕😎

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jS4w5S-Jdb4

    "We have to find someone who can not only fly this plane, but who didn't have fish for dinner."

    Crooow:This music would work better with women in bikinis shaking all over the place. I guess that's true of any music really.
  • sherbsherb Senior Member Posts: 4,098 Senior Member

    @NZ Indicator said:
    Any of this matter since Trump will be in another 4 years?

    :#

    Not relevant. Probably true, but not relevant to this discussion.

    Its too early to tell anyway.

  • jbillyjbilly Senior Member Posts: 5,297 Senior Member

    Sheb who do you think it will be?

    Just want to know who should drop out right now.

  • sherbsherb Senior Member Posts: 4,098 Senior Member

    Amusing. I am most amused.

    I think it will be Pocahontas.

    😉

  • StevenSteven Senior Member Posts: 3,557 Senior Member

    de Blasio just dropped out.

    I think he was one of sherb's early picks.

  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 24,253 Senior Member

    That would explain why he dropped out.

    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 4,777 Senior Member

    Sherb's record reigns supreme!

  • StevenSteven Senior Member Posts: 3,557 Senior Member
    edited September 20 #21

    Hey! How did I miss this?

    Biden's "latest major gaffe occurred Tuesday, when he assured the attendees of an AFL-CIO event that his proposed $8,000 tax credit for everyone who has child care costs “would put 720 million women back into the work force.” This is roughly twice the number of people living in the U.S.

    This is hilarious.

  • StevenSteven Senior Member Posts: 3,557 Senior Member

    @fishingcomic said:
    That would explain why he dropped out.

    Don't believe sherb when he denies this.

  • jbillyjbilly Senior Member Posts: 5,297 Senior Member
    edited September 20 #23

    Deleting so as not to derail Sherb's prognostications

  • sherbsherb Senior Member Posts: 4,098 Senior Member
  • sherbsherb Senior Member Posts: 4,098 Senior Member

    I get one teensy tiny thing wrong (the election of Donald Trump) and now I'm lower than whale s hit on the bottom of the ocean. Real nice.

  • jbillyjbilly Senior Member Posts: 5,297 Senior Member

    @sherb said:
    I get one teensy tiny thing wrong (the election of Donald Trump) and now I'm lower than whale s hit on the bottom of the ocean. Real nice.

    You are right. One tiny mistake. We should all get past this. Maybe you can make a youtube video of your prediction for this years winner while wearing a brown jacket and blue shirt; guessing it would be viral.

  • Shawn C.Shawn C. Senior Member Posts: 7,020 Senior Member

    Sherb's Punditry and Guide Service: "Leaving customers and political candidates waiting at the boat ramp since 2015!"

  • Shawn C.Shawn C. Senior Member Posts: 7,020 Senior Member

    P.S. Probably not in the spirit of the thread but I like Warren. I like some of her policies. A lot. But as Comic and I were discussing last weekend, she would have zero chance of getting ANYTHING accomplished. Also, I truly believe the American electorate is more misogynistic than racist. Lots of folks simply would never vote for a woman. Simply put: Unelectable. I always vote for General Election electability in the primaries.

    Regarding Biden and the far left, do they really think Biden won't sign progressive legislation that comes across his desk? F'in millennials...

  • BushartBushart Senior Member Posts: 3,039 Senior Member

    @Shawn C. said:
    P.S. Probably not in the spirit of the thread but I like Warren. I like some of her policies. A lot. But as Comic and I were discussing last weekend, she would have zero chance of getting ANYTHING accomplished. Also, I truly believe the American electorate is more misogynistic than racist. Lots of folks simply would never vote for a woman. Simply put: Unelectable. I always vote for General Election electability in the primaries.

    Regarding Biden and the far left, do they really think Biden won't sign progressive legislation that comes across his desk? F'in millennials...

    More of the electorate voted for hated Hillary last time than Trump

    But ya know EC

  • Shawn C.Shawn C. Senior Member Posts: 7,020 Senior Member

    True, but the D's this time will have to overcome the hurdle of the EC (and voter suppression tactics). But enough of the digression.

  • StevenSteven Senior Member Posts: 3,557 Senior Member

    Booker pretty much out of money.

    Every ad on YouTube is either Biden or Steyer. Steyer's "Native American" style belt bugs the heck out of me.

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