Trump vacates Iran Nuclear Deal

sherbsherb Senior MemberPosts: 2,167 Senior Member

Next up: Somebody sues him in federal court enjoining him from doing so and wins.

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  • Shawn C.Shawn C. Senior Member Posts: 5,614 Senior Member

    Actual footage of John Bolton in new job:

  • BushartBushart Senior Member Posts: 1,793 Senior Member

    @sherb said:
    Next up: Somebody sues him in federal court enjoining him from doing so and wins.

    One can only hope.

  • Green Mt BoyGreen Mt Boy Senior Member Posts: 682 Senior Member

    I pretty much agree with this editorial from the NYT:

    President Trump’s attempt to blow up the Iranian nuclear deal isn’t foreign policy. It’s vandalism.

    Trump is abandoning the Iran deal, with nothing to replace it, even though his own secretary of state and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff say that Iran appears to be in compliance; even though his own secretary of defense says that staying in the deal is in America’s interest; even though our allies are pleading to stick with it. The reason for Trump’s decision seems obvious: The deal was President Barack Obama’s.

    This petty retreat from diplomacy is the most significant national security move Trump has made. It means that Trump is isolating the United States, not Iran, and it increases the risk of military conflict down the road. If there’s anything we should have learned, it’s to avoid unnecessary wars in the Middle East — but Trump may be laying the groundwork for yet another.

    “Many regard the invasion of Iraq as the worst foreign policy move in the history of the American republic,” James Dobbins, a much respected retired diplomat, tweeted after Trump’s speech. “Now we have a competitor.”

    The Iranian nuclear deal may not permanently solve the problem of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, but it delays any crisis for nearly 15 years or more. Trump doesn’t want to risk a possible crisis then, so he chooses to have one now — apparently, just for the satisfaction of kicking sand at Obama.

    A crisis won’t necessarily result right away. It could be some months before sanctions would actually kick in, and in any case Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said this week that the nuclear deal could remain in place even if the Americans pull out.

    Rather, Iran may try for moderation to peel European allies away from America — and Trump is playing into this Iranian strategy. Some in the international community will regard the actions of President Trump and of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and see Khamenei as more of a statesman.

    Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be itching for a joint American-Israeli strike on Iran. Netanyahu may see political advantages to a triumphant air strike, and I fear Trump might as well. Trump may have absorbed the unfortunate lesson from his military strikes on Syria that when he fires missiles, he is hailed as presidential.

    I’m told that the United States years ago secretly built a replica of the Iranian complex at Fordo, which is deep underground to protect it from bombings, and practiced striking it with new munitions to see whether it could be destroyed. Based on those tests, America could indeed destroy Fordo — and that will give hawks in the Trump administration, like John Bolton, more confidence as they advocate military options down the road.

    Bolton is smart and knowledgeable, but his hawkish approach also has a track record. Let’s see how it did in three cases:

    First, Bolton agitated for the Iraq war and still considers the invasion to have been a wise decision. The war, remember, killed 4,500 Americans, about half a million Iraqis, and cost the U.S. some $3 trillion — or $24,000 per American household.

    Second, Bolton in 2002 helped kill the Agreed Framework that had kept North Korea from building a single nuclear warhead during the Clinton years. North Korea was secretly evading the framework, so tough negotiation was required — but instead Bolton helped blow up the deal, and since then North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests and developed intercontinental missiles that can reach the U.S.

    Third, Bolton in 2003 and 2004 helped end a European initiative to reach a deal with Iran on nuclear issues at that time, when the program was in much earlier stages.

    In each of these cases, Bolton and the hawks were right that diplomacy was a flawed tool and might not have achieved our objectives: In international relations, there are more problems than solutions. What is clear is that the hawkish non-diplomatic paths failed catastrophically.

    A basic problem with military options is that, as the Prussian strategist Helmuth Von Moltke observed, no military plan survives first contact with the enemy. After a strike, Iran might try to blow up Saudi oil installations, or block oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, or it could use its proxies in Lebanon to stir up a war with Israel.

    I’ve reported in Iran (and been detained there by secret police and accused of spying), and I know full well that the regime is untrustworthy. That’s precisely the reason for the nuclear deal and the rigorous inspections that come with it. For now, the inspectors agree that Iran is essentially in compliance — while the U.S. arguably violated it by failing to approve licenses for commerce with Iran, and by subverting normal trade relations.

    So why destroy a deal that is working, other than to dismantle some of Obama’s legacy?

    “What’s the purpose of all this?” asks Jake Sullivan, a former senior State Department official involved in the outreach to Iran. “You put pressure back on, and what’s the purpose? Is it to achieve a new nuclear deal? Is it about regime change?”

    Sullivan noted that there’s little chance of Trump actually negotiating a new deal, and added: “So what’s the point of this other than ‘Iranians are bad people and we’re going to hurt them.’ What’s the strategy other than a temper tantrum?”

    And that’s why I see Trump’s move as less about foreign policy than about vandalism.

  • sherbsherb Senior Member Posts: 2,167 Senior Member

    @Bushart said:

    @sherb said:
    Next up: Somebody sues him in federal court enjoining him from doing so and wins.

    One can only hope.

    well, I meant it as kind of a joke. Since the agreement wasn't ratified, there's not much to enjoin or enforce.

  • sherbsherb Senior Member Posts: 2,167 Senior Member

    I express no opinion on whether Trump's decision was well-considered or ill-advised. A quick glance at my Twitter feed reveals plenty of partisan opinion going both ways, and I don't know enough to have an informed opinion on the policy decision independent of the politics.

  • Green Mt BoyGreen Mt Boy Senior Member Posts: 682 Senior Member

    I get it that the Iranian regime is hostile and stirring up a lot trouble. But, the agreement caused them to curtail their program to develop nuclear weapons and they are in compliance with it.

  • BushartBushart Senior Member Posts: 1,793 Senior Member

    One opinion is that if you arbitrarily back away from intl. agreements without just cause...You lose credibility. (it's akin to N. Korea)
    The EU and the UN are going to try and keep this going ---so it's looking like The US is going it alone.
    And Trump looking like child throwing a temper tantrum.

  • jbillyjbilly Senior Member Posts: 4,713 Senior Member

    If Trump puts it in...upset

    If Trump pulls out....upset

    I almost feel bad for him ;)

  • swizzswizz Senior Member Posts: 2,550 Senior Member

    I am in the streets chanting death to Iran. Screw em. It was a super bad deal and another Trump campaign promise fulfilled. Remember when hero Saint John McCain was singing "Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran" to the Beach boys? Jbilly is on point... lib msm was primed for an elaborate negative response either way. Everybody knows and anticipates that at this point. Iran can go suck an egg, they'll never like nor respect the USA.

    All of your Trout are belong to me.
  • MikeAMikeA Senior Member Posts: 2,816 Senior Member

    Just Imagine if Trump made that sweet deal with Iran and then Russia and Iran formed an alliance in Syria with Assad who used chemical weapons on his own people.

  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 21,708 Senior Member

    Well this was a strategy that worked out so well for Bush and NK.

    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 21,708 Senior Member

    @MikeA said:
    Just Imagine if Trump made that sweet deal with Iran and then Russia and Iran formed an alliance in Syria with Assad who used chemical weapons on his own people.

    Would they still have cemented their facilities and destroyed their centrifuges? If so, those would still be separate issues and the other sanctions would still be in place. So yeah enjoy your yeahbutt fantasy. However it is just that, a fantasy.

    Now if he did do this exact same deal, You would be nominating him for the Nobel Prize.

    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 21,708 Senior Member

    @swizz said:
    I am in the streets chanting death to Iran. Screw em. It was a super bad deal and another Trump campaign promise fulfilled. Remember when hero Saint John McCain was singing "Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran" to the Beach boys? Jbilly is on point... lib msm was primed for an elaborate negative response either way. Everybody knows and anticipates that at this point. Iran can go suck an egg, they'll never like nor respect the USA.

    Did I miss something? Did John McCain get praise for that? Seems to me that most people thought it was a stupid thing to say.

    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • swizzswizz Senior Member Posts: 2,550 Senior Member

    How dare you. Saint John has never said a stupid thing. Please take that back.

    All of your Trout are belong to me.
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 21,708 Senior Member

    I don't know about the saint part, but he has certainly been a more patriotic American than our current LOS and Chief.

    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • swizzswizz Senior Member Posts: 2,550 Senior Member

    That's right, St John is a war hero and don't you forget it, ever. As for Iran... it is a shthole country that is about to get a bit more shtholier. Sanctions, sanctions.

    All of your Trout are belong to me.
  • BushartBushart Senior Member Posts: 1,793 Senior Member

    @swizz said:
    That's right, St John is a war hero and don't you forget it, ever. As for Iran... it is a shthole country that is about to get a bit more shtholier. Sanctions, sanctions.

    Some Iranian kid beat you up in the school yard and take your lunch money??

  • swizzswizz Senior Member Posts: 2,550 Senior Member

    I started disliking them in the 70s during the Iran hostage crisis. Since then they have been strong supporters of terrorism and have never lost their hate for America... in fact it has grown. I'm sorry that you and comic are big fans of theirs but, screw em. Death to Iran.

    All of your Trout are belong to me.
  • BushartBushart Senior Member Posts: 1,793 Senior Member

    Please show your work---where did I say I was a fan of Iran? (will not speak for Comic)

    This was about a DEAL--that was broken---that made the ME safer

    Did Bibi send you a video as well?

  • swizzswizz Senior Member Posts: 2,550 Senior Member

    I will show you my balls, they are America strong. Death to Iran.

    All of your Trout are belong to me.
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 21,708 Senior Member
    edited May 9 #22

    @swizz said:
    I started disliking them in the 70s during the Iran hostage crisis. Since then they have been strong supporters of terrorism and have never lost their hate for America... in fact it has grown. I'm sorry that you and comic are big fans of theirs but, screw em. Death to Iran.

    You are not one of our great thinkers are you? Who said I was a big fan? You do realize even with this deal there are still many other sanctions still in effect, right? The fact is this deal actually did something to curb their pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Without the deal they will have one before Trump leaves office.

    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • swizzswizz Senior Member Posts: 2,550 Senior Member

    The fact is this deal actually did something to curb their pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Without the deal they will have one before Trump leaves office.

    Just like North Korea? Iran would certainly regret it, and they know it. Diplomacy through strength has proven successful thus far.

    All of your Trout are belong to me.
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 21,708 Senior Member

    actually exactly like NK when W made the exact same mistake.

    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • fishingcomicfishingcomic Senior Member Posts: 21,708 Senior Member
    'I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life. …In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.'" Ronald Reagan
  • BushartBushart Senior Member Posts: 1,793 Senior Member

    Twitter boy apparently misses a key point
    doesn't matter if it's a good deal or a bad deal---it's still a deal

    Sets a bad tone about entering into future agreements if there will potentially be a flip by future admins

  • Green Mt BoyGreen Mt Boy Senior Member Posts: 682 Senior Member

    the

  • sherbsherb Senior Member Posts: 2,167 Senior Member

    @Bushart said:
    Twitter boy apparently misses a key point
    doesn't matter if it's a good deal or a bad deal---it's still a deal

    Sets a bad tone about entering into future agreements if there will potentially be a flip by future admins

    Then Obama should have ratified it in Congress.

    Again, I take no position on the wisdom of the deal, but I stand by my position that unilateral agreements by one president cannot bind a successor.

  • BushartBushart Senior Member Posts: 1,793 Senior Member

    However---NAFTA was ratified and yet blew up unilaterally by one Person

  • StevenSteven Senior Member Posts: 2,280 Senior Member

    @sherb said:

    Then Obama should have ratified it in Congress.

    Who?

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