Hey Scott and other Pacific Northwesterners...

George KGeorge K Super ModeratorPosts: 9,648 Senior Member
Erm, not to depress or frighten you, but you might consider getting out while the getting's good: The odds are inauspicious. You might also consider moving to the 12th floor or higher of an earthquake resistant building.

The Cascadia fault.

...In the Pacific Northwest, the area of impact will cover* some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people. When the next full-margin rupture happens, that region will suffer the worst natural disaster in the history of North America. Roughly three thousand people died in San Francisco’s 1906 earthquake. Almost two thousand died in Hurricane Katrina. Almost three hundred died in Hurricane Sandy. FEMA projects that nearly thirteen thousand people will die in the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. Another twenty-seven thousand will be injured, and the agency expects that it will need to provide shelter for a million displaced people, and food and water for another two and a half million. “This is one time that I’m hoping all the science is wrong, and it won’t happen for another thousand years,” Murphy says...

... In fact, the science is robust, and one of the chief scientists behind it is Chris Goldfinger. Thanks to work done by him and his colleagues, we now know that the odds of the big Cascadia earthquake happening in the next fifty years are roughly one in three. The odds of the very big one are roughly one in ten. Even those numbers do not fully reflect the danger—or, more to the point, how unprepared the Pacific Northwest is to face it. The truly worrisome figures in this story are these: Thirty years ago, no one knew that the Cascadia subduction zone had ever produced a major earthquake. Forty-five years ago, no one even knew it existed...

...At approximately nine o’ clock at night on January 26, 1700, a magnitude-9.0 earthquake struck the Pacific Northwest, causing sudden land subsidence, drowning coastal forests, and, out in the ocean, lifting up a wave half the length of a continent. It took roughly fifteen minutes for the Eastern half of that wave to strike the Northwest coast. It took ten hours for the other half to cross the ocean. It reached Japan on January 27, 1700: by the local calendar, the eighth day of the twelfth month of the twelfth year of Genroku.

Once scientists had reconstructed the 1700 earthquake, certain previously overlooked accounts also came to seem like clues. In 1964, Chief Louis Nookmis, of the Huu-ay-aht First Nation, in British Columbia, told a story, passed down through seven generations, about the eradication of Vancouver Island’s Pachena Bay people. “I think it was at nighttime that the land shook,” Nookmis recalled. According to another tribal history, “They sank at once, were all drowned; not one survived.” A hundred years earlier, Billy Balch, a leader of the Makah tribe, recounted a similar story. Before his own time, he said, all the water had receded from Washington State’s Neah Bay, then suddenly poured back in, inundating the entire region. Those who survived later found canoes hanging from the trees. In a 2005 study, Ruth Ludwin, then a seismologist at the University of Washington, together with nine colleagues, collected and analyzed Native American reports of earthquakes and saltwater floods. Some of those reports contained enough information to estimate a date range for the events they described. On average, the midpoint of that range was 1701...

Keep your stinkin' government hands off my Medicare.


  • Scott ButnerScott Butner Senior Member Posts: 3,918 Senior Member
    for one thing, I'm 200 miles inland, and about 300 feet above sea level. While my family might be affected, we live in a community with a striking absence of multi-story buildings (never mind huge amounts of nuclear waste stored a few miles away, near our water supply....).

    more to the point, let's say the estimates are right. 13,000 dead out of 7,000,000 residents means that 99.8% of us will survive. IF I live another 20 years -- which would have me outliving my mom, dad, and most of my grandparents then I have a one in 5 chance that it'll happen during my lifetime.

    I guess the benefits of living here outweigh the risks, at least for now.
  • jbillyjbilly Senior Member Posts: 5,154 Senior Member
    Beats the hell out of tornado alley.
  • HextallHextall Senior Member Posts: 9,520 Senior Member
    I would take the risk of being earthquaked into the cold dark sea over living in Florida any day of the week and twice on Tuesday.
  • Scott ButnerScott Butner Senior Member Posts: 3,918 Senior Member
    Hextall wrote: »
    I would take the risk of being earthquaked into the cold dark sea over living in Florida any day of the week and twice on Tuesday.

    exactly. This ^^^
  • George KGeorge K Super Moderator Posts: 9,648 Senior Member
    Hextall wrote: »
    I would take the risk of being earthquaked into the cold dark sea over living in Florida any day of the week and twice on Tuesday.

    The lady doth protest too much.

    What happened to your long time dream of retiring to southern Florida, buying a Crown Vic and going out every afternoon for the Early Bird Special at the local diner?
    Keep your stinkin' government hands off my Medicare.
  • ricinusricinus Senior Member Posts: 6,214 Senior Member
    Ahh, the lineup at Denny's.. Livin' the life..

    My new goal in life is to become an Alter Kaker...
  • NZ IndicatorNZ Indicator Senior Member Posts: 9,908 Senior Member
    And just south of there California is sinking. Anyone here from Chris lately or did he get sucked up in a hole?

  • creekguycreekguy Senior Member Posts: 3,905 Senior Member

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